講座題目：Structural Change and The Natural Rate of Interest: An Accounting Framework by Sufficient Statistics
主講專家：王 彬 副教授
主 持 人：周上堯 準聘制副教授
講座時間：2025年1月10日（周五）14：30—16:30
講座地點：文泉樓南207會議室
内容概要：
This paper empirically and quantitatively explores the link between structural change and declining natural interest rate, both of which are seminal trends during the last three decades. Empirical analysis suggests that structural change from manufacturing to services explains 42.77% of the natural interest rate declining in our sample. We then build a theoretical model to show that the variance of the final goods (consumption) share change is a sufficient statistic for the declining natural rate if sectors are complements. By this sufficient statistics, we account the contribution of structural change to the declining natural rate, and the result is close to the empirical one.
專家簡介：
王彬，暨南大學澳门永利集团304官网手机副教授，博士畢業于香港城市大學，研究方向為宏觀經濟學以及政治經濟學，研究話題包括生産網絡、低利率環境、晉升激勵、勞動搜尋匹配等。論文發表于Economics Letters, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Macroeconomic Dynamics等期刊。